What if you knew that you had only 2 years before your life was going to undergo a dramatic change? Not a power outage kind of change but a permanent power shortage, really expensive food, gas rationing kind of change? What would you do today to prepare for that change? Would you still live where you still live where you live? Would you still work where you work? How would your spending change? Your travel? Your investments in your community?
I just looked at the charts on projected oil output and usage from the EIA and I fear that may be the case. By 2012, there will be a gap between the energy we have and the energy we need that does not bode well for average families. This shortage will not be helped much by storing food or buying a camp stove. It is a situation that will demand lifestyle changes that have to be started now if you are going to avoid the worst of the dislocation. Please don’t wait to find a way to grow food. Don’t wait to get your house insulated or to buy the new windows. Start the community garden and raise some chickens with your neighbor. Eat locally (this one is really important). Find out where your water comes from. Buy the water filter and the rain barrel. Download the directions for the rocket stove and the outdoor oven. Start a relocalization group. If you live in the suburbs and can’t grow food or walk anywhere, get out.
Do I sound alarmist? I am. Energy depletion is no longer a distant maybe but a here and now. It will affect you and your children. It is too late to make plans. The time has come to take action.
April 26, 2010 at 7:21 am
every thing we do now, all our storage is designed with that in mind. We can’t depend on the energy to always be there (for whatever reason, be it Cap&Trade or peak oil)
We have back up plans for when we do need energy, but mostly it’s a gradual reduction of what we use, where we go and what we buy.
April 26, 2010 at 8:38 am
Hi Kathy,
I’ve been studying and posting about the rising cost of everything petroleum (which is just about everything) for a number of years now. It’s really a hard topic to broach without getting the Henny Penny label stuck to your forehead.
Having said that, I have 5 Rules I’ve tried to use to get us into as viable a situation as possible:
Don’t Buy
Don’t Borrow
Don’t Specialize
Don’t Starve
Don’t Depend
Thanks for the post!
April 26, 2010 at 8:40 am
We are extremely relieved that we finally found our home to buy. The reason is that now we can do those things to prepare, much more easily than if we continued to stay as renters.
The frustrating side is there are so many little repairs and upgrades needed that it impacts our ability to do the prepping work also needed. A sink leaking must be fixed to avoid damage to the cabinet underneath. Dog fencing has to be secure to prevent escapes. Fencing borders is necessary to keep the riffraff from riding their quads across your land. (Yep, that’s happened already.)
So, along with wanting to get the rainwater collection system set-up, we need to deal with finding and putting up a shed to get our tools out of rental storage. We need to clear lots of brush and weeds in order to plant that garden (or even make the compost pile). But, we’re here and we’re working on it.
Please confirm that I have a good two years left to prepare!
April 26, 2010 at 11:05 am
Your advice is “right on” and most timely. It is also true that for a vast number of people on earth, energy and oil in particular virtually does not exist. These are dependent on what they can scavange daily. As you suggest, clean water is also of paramount importance.
Clean water is of far greater concern to the folks mentioned above than energy and the diminishing supply of fresh water will in the long run be a larger and more disasterous shortage than oil.
This is in no way meant to lessen our concern for diminishing oil supplies, but in reality, oil will be available in large quantities for generations to come, it will just depend on who can afford it.
April 26, 2010 at 1:34 pm
In the following link, I am the one known as microcarl.
http://shtf411.com/people-in-denial-t6222.html
Peak oil is upon us, as is peak everything else!
I’ve been acting for more then a year. But with a lay-off from my job, things were a bit slow. Now that I’m working again, we (me, wife, daughter and son-in-law) are putting planning into practice, post-haste!
If you aren’t actively preparing, your chance of surviving the coming collapse is reduced to ZERO!
Alarmist or not, the truth can no longer be masked by the main stream media and government deception.
April 26, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Even though I’ve been reading about peak oil for a year or so, this post kind of felt like a hit to the stomach. We’re doing lots of things on a small scale, like the garden and chickens, but I wonder how we’ll make out if we have to go large scale. Could we do it? Guess we’ll have to. Community will have a lot to do with it – both physically and psychologically.
April 26, 2010 at 8:30 pm
Puhleeze, puhleeze, do we really still have 2 more years before something goes KERPLOOIE!? Promise?
Okay, I know you didn’t promise so I can’t hold you to it!
what bothers me more than the Peak Oil issues at the moment is the financial edifice in our modern world. I’m convinced one of these days, or nights, the digital trading system/electronic banking system will have some kind of short or some computerized transaction will go wrong and delete all the money in the world! Or it will just freeze up like it did in September 2008 and nothing related to money will work electronically. and it’s just all gone!
cheer,
shamba
April 26, 2010 at 8:38 pm
Wow! I wish I had a crystal ball. I too worry that the 2 year goal is way to conservative. Maybe 2 years, maybe 2 days. I suspect nobody is ever really going to “ready”. We can all just do what we do.
April 26, 2010 at 9:17 pm
While I share your concern for the future, I’m not ready yet to panic. A better question in my opinion would be, “If you knew all of your day to day expenses, gas, food, utilities were going to cost twice as much 5 years from now, how would you prepare and what changes to your lifestyle would you make.
Unless we do have another financial pothole, which is unlikely given how close the government is watching the foxes around the hen house right now, I expect Peak Everything will mean a slow climb in prices and more and more shortages.
Now the end of the decade might be another matter.
April 27, 2010 at 10:56 am
I don’t know if I entirely buy into Peak Oil, but your advice is sound regardless. It’s never good to be entirely dependent on one source for all your needs, whether it’s food, light, heat, energy, fuel…and unfortunately, that’s a snare most of us have fallen into. The plan for action you’re describing isn’t new and dynamic…it’s plain old wisdom that my generation never bothered to learn. We’ve lazy and soft and now it’s coming back around to bite us in the Captain’s quarters.
April 27, 2010 at 6:03 pm
We got a letter from the power company last week to expect to see a raise in rates. Last month we had a 16′ foot freezer start thawing. It was full. It was a nightmare. But it thawed slowely as it was in an unheated building. So I started at the top and then took out only what I could cook that day to work up. And canned all the meat that couldn’t be moved to another freezer. Everyone asked us if we were going to replace the freezer. The answer is NO. We will figure a way to get around that.
2 years ago we bought 12 blue plastic barrels from the local bread store. They were 55 gallon and food grade. They are now our rain barrels. We put spikets on the lower sides of them to drain the water out. We also bought a small portable pump to move that water with. I wish it was a solar pump and I need to see about finding one. But in the meantime we will work with this.
Our garden has gotten a lot bigger this year. And even though there are only 2 of us we do plan on canning as much as possible. But also doing fresh storage as much as possible. We have a root cellar that we built in our dirt floored basement a few years ago. We built it from old cement blocks that were given to us. It took a lot of work to get the old cement off from them to make them useable but it was so worth it.
We raise rabbits. And since we raise them we also raise carrots. And gather as many free apples as possible as well to help with the feed. I buy hay from a neighbor as well.
But I do think we all need to learn to take care of ourselves as much as possible.
On my want list is a solar oven. The other thing is a press to turn sun flower seeds into cooking oil.
Then again I do think we should all have a want list.
April 27, 2010 at 7:38 pm
There are many reasons to prepare – political, financial, religious, weather and natural disasters……
I assume my friends would fall into ONE of those catagories, if not more. So then why, oh why am I the ONLY person I know who is seriously preparing? There may be those who are, but just don’t talk about it. That is highly recommended on some sites, which begs the question, what happens when the (unprepared) someone steals the food from your garden, or brandishes a weapon and wants to take what you have carefully laid by? Food for thought, but let’s not go there.
Like many, my budget is very tight, and I live in the suburban edge of a medium-sized city. While not fully urban, I have VERY little room to store or grow food. There are also things we need that are not food, so I am giving equal attention to items, or goods and services, I might BARTER when times get tough. I spin and knit, have several wool fleeces on hand and raise dual-purpose (fiber and meat) rabbits. It gets mighty cold in the winter where I live. Someone might want a warm garment in exchange for something I need. So, I advocate learning all kinds of skills.
p.s Kathy, thanks for writing the book. It is great!
April 28, 2010 at 6:43 am
I am totally impressed by how much folks manage to accomplish. I have to seriously consider rabbits.
April 28, 2010 at 3:13 pm
We have been storing supplies for about a year and a half. At first, it was hard to prioritize what would be needed to survive some sort of disaster in the long term.
Looking back, I think we could have done better at planning. But the fact is, when you first come to realize just how vulnerable you are to the system (or lack thereof) it is overwhelming!
I suggest that you begin by creating a list of essential items. While many think it reckless, I will share my list with you here.
One thing that helps is the fact that my daughter and her husband are of the same mind-set. We make every attempt to complement each other’s purchases. Find like minded individuals in your area and see if they are willing to merge their efforts with yours. You will need a community effort, if for no other reason then to ensure that security can be adequately managed to safeguard your investment when a SHTF scenario does take place. And to be sure, there is always some SHTF scenario in our future. There is always some local disaster that could take place and totally disrupt your current lifestyle – look back at Katrina, or even Haiti!
Understand that the basics have been met and any excessive items are there for barter. 13,000 rounds of .22LF ammunition may seem excessive, until you realize that 10 rounds might get you a dozen eggs, in a SHTF scenario.
Also, we have been aggressively engaging in sprucing up our gardening skills this spring. We plan on canning much of what we grow in our 25 foot x 25 foot garden. It’s not big, but it’s a start.
Regarding the list, EVERY TIME you go to the grocery store, if you buy a bag of rice for use this week, buy two, and put it up! If you but a pair of socks, buy two and put one up!
Next week we will be investing in a 45 watt solar voltaic power system for $200.00. We plan on accumulating 5 of these systems, providing 225 watts of charging (16.3 amperes) capacity. We plan on building up 6,000 watt hours of 12 volt storage batteries. We are figuring we will be making a $2,000.00 investment over several months to a year – if we have that long.
But by taking small steps, over time your efforts will grow into a wealth of supplies.
I hope sharing my list with you helps you more then confuses you.
You priority will need to be based to each according to their individual needs.
Items with ‘*’ are already procured.
Daily personal equipment:
* Desired personal defense weapons:
9mm pistol, Glock model 26 – two each, 10 round magazines
.40 cal pistol, S&W M&P – two each,10 round magazines
.40 cal pistol, Springfield Amory XDm – six each, 16 round magazines
.38 cal pistol, S&W Airweight revolver -, two each, 5 round magazines
.22LR pistol, Walther P22 – two each, 10 round magazines
.22LR semi-auto rifle, Ruger 10/22, one each 10 round & two each 25 round magazines
30-30 Winchester, Marlin 336W, 7 rounds
.177 Pellet rifle Gamo Big Cat, 1 round
12 GA semi-auto shot gun Remington 870 tactical, 7 rounds
* At least 1,000 rounds of ammunition for each weapon
* Gerber Multi-tool
* Hand saw
* Freeze dried food supply – 45 day supply on hand plus 1 year times 3 non-perishable food supplies, Pinto beans, rice, Spam, noodles, etc…
* Sleeping bags – usable to minus 20 degrees F
* Ground barrier matt
* Light-weight two person, all season tent
* First-aid kit
* Sewing kit
* Medication – Aspirin, Primatene Mist, Cold medicine, other medications
* Water purification kit & water carrier
* Personal cooking stove
* Cooling fuel – 2 cans
* Fire starters – Magnesium based
* Mess-kit
* Eating utensils – knife, fork, spoon
* Drinking cups
* Tooth bush
* Tooth paste
* Survival knife
* Extra clothes – pants, shirt, socks, Long-Johns, etc…
* Path-Finding Compass
* Maps of the area
* LED type flash light
* Toilet paper
* Tiny shovel – garden trowel
* Fishing line, hooks
* Duct/Gorilla tape
Base items acquired – Current Status:
Ammunition:
22LR ammunition – 13,500 rounds on hand
9mm ammunition – 2,600 rounds on hand
.40 cal ammunition – 2,100 rounds on hand
.38 Special hollow point ammunition – 600 rounds on hand
30-30 ammunition – 400 rounds on hand
.177 pellets – 3,500 rounds in hand
12GA Double 00 – 200 rounds on hand
* Two sleeping bags – good for minus 20 degrees F
* Two all season tents – one 2 man and one 3 man. The 2 man tent gets put up inside of the 3 man tent for further warmth.
* Winter coat
* Rain Coat (Poncho) – have 2 on hand
* Gloves and other cold weather supplies
* Winter boots
* Advanced first-aid kit, including a supply of Aspirin
* Two-way Radios – will only be use in case of a personal emergency or rescue operation
* Grundig Short-wave radio – Strictly battery/110VAC operated – for listening to semi-local and global events
* Solar shower – 2 purchased
* Hand saw
* Hammer & nails
* Fishing supplies, fishing line, hooks, bobbers, sinkers, etc…
* Fire starting equipment – Cigarette lighters, fire starters, etc…
* Grundig Hand-crank/Solar/Battery operated short wave radio
* Solar Voltaic panels for charging batteries – currently have 2
* Solar powered batter charger – AA, 9 volt, etc…
* Rechargeable batteries, NMHI technology – currently have 8 AA
* Inexpensive GPS locator
* Replacement LED type flash lights – currently have 4
* Two gallon size baggies
* Toilet paper
* Tooth brushes
* Tooth paste
Items still to be acquired – Current Status:
Replacement parts for personal defense weapons
As many replacements for all daily personal equipment as can be acquired with available budget & time constraints
Replacement sleeping bags & personal shelter, if possible
Hatchet
Collapsible shovel
Rope, Twine and String
Hand-crank type LOW –VOLTAGE generator
Replacement Path-Finding Compass & maps of the area
Second Water purification kit & water carrier
May 6, 2010 at 2:14 pm
“It’s never good to be entirely dependent on one source for all your needs, whether it’s food, light, heat, energy, fuel…and unfortunately, that’s a snare most of us have fallen into.”
Here I go commmenting on a comment
It isn’t that we have just fallen into a bad habit in our just in time sytem of supply and demand, it’s this: THAT’S ALL THERE IS. Unless you deliberately, systematically and persistently choose otherwise.
And you are right Kathy, the time is now. I am considering making some drastic changes myself. Wait and see
BTW, C.W. Livingston, where did you find a solar power system for $400 for 45 watts???? Inquiring minds want to know!
As a single mom who has been unemployed now for nearly 11 months, I am feeling the pinch. I am also feeling the pull to move to a much more sustainable lifestyle, even though it will be frowned upon as “primitive” by my entitlist family members. I feel like I’m running for all I’m worth about a yard ahead of the tsunami
May 6, 2010 at 2:16 pm
Carol, try making ghee if you have a source of milk! It is a cooking oil that will keep unrefrigerated a long time, AND is much easier to make than sunflower seed oil!
May 7, 2010 at 12:27 pm
Madison wrote:
“BTW, C.W. Livingston, where did you find a solar power system for $400 for 45 watts???? Inquiring minds want to know!”
OK, the solar panels come in a kit of three 15 watt panels, developing 23 volts, open terminal. At 13.8 volts, they deliver slightly more then 1 ampere each – equating to 15 watts. The kit comes with a crude charge controller that is scaled to 45 watts and will work well for this 3 panel system.
Now, it MUST be understood that, you still need to provide a 12 volt automotive battery and an inverter, if you expect to develop 110 VAC from the system.
The charge controller has jacks that allow you to charge batteries at lower voltage, such as 9 VDC transistor ratio batteries.
In addition, the kit comes with two compact florescent bulbs in the standard household screw-in base.
The cost of this kit is $200.00 plus tax, at Harbor Freight. As a single kit, and having a mid-sized inverter (say, 1,000 watts) this 3 panel system will be great for operating 12 VDC lighting and small appliances and hand tools.
Now, I am a technical type, with long existing electronics skills. My plan is to purchase at least 5 of these kits, as well as 10 deep cycle 12 VDC automotive type batteries. The intended target application of this system is our 35 foot travel trailer, which is permanently set up at our bug-out/survival retreat site.
To be sure, I may well be looking at $3,000.00 or more, before I am finished with this experiment. But a commercially made and installed system may well cost considerably more money, and provides far less capability. Your budget and technical skills will dictate your individual course of action, if solar power holds any interest toward your future energy needs/requirements.
There is one more advange to my building up my own solar generation system – I will understand it’s operation, thoroughly!
In addition, I have no plans or interest in the idea of participating in feeding power back into the commercial electrical grid. By “Off-grid,” I really mean that I want to be “Off-grid!”
The goal is to have a solar voltaic system large enough to power an “On demand” hot water system (about 1,000 watts), all of the lights and everything 12 volt operated in the trailer.
Heat will come from a small wood stove we found that fits well into the trailer. Cooking will come from a 500 gallon propane tank, backed up by the wood stove.
For the past 5 years we have elected to NOT use our central heating & Air conditioning in the house in which we live. We use 110 VAC oil filled heaters for heat in the winter and in the summer, we simply open the windows and hope for a cross breeze. Some mornings in the winter, we wake up to 45 degrees and simply use it as motivation to get moving and dress appropriately.
We currently use the propane for cooking only. A 500 gallon tank, filled to 85% will last about 5 years, based on our typical cooking requirements. If cooking is supplemented with the wood stove, we will probably be able to get even more use from one filling of a 500 gallon propane tank.
Now, to be sure, living in a 35 foot travel trailer might cause the typical home dweller to experience some radical changes in mind-set. But we (my wife, my 4 children and me) have lived in a 28 foot bunk house trailer for several years, back when we lived in Oklahoma – during my college years. It was tough, but we all survived!
In addition, regarding the 35 foot trailer that we currently have and plan on using, my wife and I lived in it for more then a year, here in the Cincinnati, Ohio area. We did this to get some privacy from the kids – when they were older, but still in the later high school years or just recently graduated.
Now to be sure, my motivation may well be far more radical then that of most individuals. Most individuals moving off-grid are doing it for ecological reasons. My motivation is to lessen the impact of the societal and financial collapse that I see coming at us like a freight train!
Any way, for what ever reason we are looking resource conservation, we all need to be looking for ways to protect our future – economically, and environmentally.
The above proclamations are only my opinion and may not be practical for the average person attempting to get off-grid.
I hope this gives a bit more insite to what I’m trying to accomplish…
May 8, 2010 at 10:50 pm
Saturday, May 8th, 2010:
I spent a week fiddling with the first installment of solar panels. All I have at the present time is a 12VDC, 5AH battery that I pulled out of a 300 watt Tripplite computer backup.
The $200.00 solar panel kit appears to work as advertized.
Today I purchased some bits & pieces to utilize the 12VDC compact florescent bulbs that came with the solar panel kit.
As I write, the two florescent lights have been burning strong for several hours. I can’t wait until I get a full size 12VDC “Deep Cycle” battery to add even more stuff to the fledgling solar powered system that is coming to like.
My goal is that, by the end of the year, to have a solar power generating system built up enough that will allow me to turn off the main circuit breakers off, removing myself from the main power grid. It’s a lofty goal, but it just might be doable.
For as long as Kathy deems it appropriate, I’ll update my progress.
Thanks for the outlet for sharing.